Hurricane FABIAN
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HURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 40
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT SEP 06 2003
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT FABIAN HAS RETAINED AN
EXCELLENT CLOUD PATTERN WITH AN EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN A RING OF DEEP
CONVECTION. BASED ON THE CURRENT SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND
CONTINUITY FROM THE LAST RECON SEVERAL HOURS AGO...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 95 KNOTS. FABIAN IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER
COOL WATERS AND IT SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 36 TO 48 HOURS.
THE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 040 DEGREES AT 19
KNOTS EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS INDICATED.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 06/1500Z 36.5N 61.5W 95 KT
12HR VT 07/0000Z 38.5N 58.8W 90 KT
24HR VT 07/1200Z 41.0N 54.5W 80 KT
36HR VT 08/0000Z 43.5N 49.5W 70 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 08/1200Z 47.5N 43.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 09/1200Z 52.5N 32.5W 70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 10/1200Z 55.0N 25.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 11/1200Z 57.5N 10.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
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