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Hurricane FABIAN

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HURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  37
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI SEP 05 2003
 
THE EYEWALL IS MOVING OVER BERMUDA. THIS WAS CONFIRMED BY
OBSERVATIONS FROM BERMUDA...HIGH RESOLUTION SATELLITE IMAGES AND
FIXES FROM AN AIR FORCE PLANE. FABIAN HAS MAINTAINED ITS ESTIMATED
INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS. THE BERMUDA AIRPORT REPORTED A MINIMUM
PRESSURE OF 965.5 MB AND GUSTS TO 102 KNOTS AND HOUR AGO AND
ESTIMATED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 90 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 115 KNOTS AT
1955Z.  THERE WAS AN UNOFFICIAL REPORT FROM BERMUDA HARBOR RADIO OF
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 102 KNOTS BEFORE THE 250 FOOT TALL INSTRUMENTED
MAST BLEW DOWN.  PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT FABIAN HAS HIT
BERMUDA AS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE
SCALE.
 
FABIAN SHOULD BE AFFECTING BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SINCE
IT IS A LARGE HURRICANE AND IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 16 KNOTS. FABIAN
SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN AS THE SHEAR INCREASES AND THE
HURRICANE BEGINS TO MOVE OVER COOL WATERS.
 
FABIAN SHOULD BE EXTRATROPICAL BY 72 HOURS OVER THE COLD WATERS OF
THE NORTH ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...AS USUAL...IT IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN IF
FABIAN WILL WEAKEN OR BECOME A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL STORM AND IT
IS MUCH MORE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE EXACT TIMING OF THE
TRANSITION FROM TROPICAL TO EXTRATROPICAL.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      05/2100Z 32.6N  65.1W   105 KT
 12HR VT     06/0600Z 34.8N  64.0W   100 KT
 24HR VT     06/1800Z 37.0N  61.0W    90 KT
 36HR VT     07/0600Z 39.5N  57.0W    80 KT
 48HR VT     07/1800Z 42.5N  52.5W    60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     08/1800Z 52.0N  38.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     09/1800Z 59.0N  15.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     10/1800Z 56.0N  17.2W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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