ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 34 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT THU SEP 04 2003 WHILE THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO FLUCTUATE...EARLIER REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATED THAT FABIAN HAD STRENGTHENED SLIGHTLY. TWO EYEWALL DROPS IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT BETWEEN 2000-2200 UTC INDICATED SURFACE WIND ESTIMATES OF 111 KT AND 114 KT. THE NOAA AIRCRAFT ALSO OBTAINED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 940 MB. EVEN THOUGH THE CONVECTIVE APPEARANCE HAS BECOME A LITTLE RAGGED...AN AREA OF COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS WERE FOUND...SO THE INTENSITY IS INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO 110 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/15. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONINGS. FABIAN HAS MADE ANOTHER SLIGHT JOG TO THE NORTH AS IT DID THIS SAME TIME LAST NIGHT...SO THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD IN LINE WITH THE NEW NHC MODEL RUNS. FABIAN IS NOW EXPECTED TO PASS OVER OR NEAR BERMUDA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS OR SO. BY 48 HOURS...THE HURRICANE SHOULD GET CAUGHT UP IN THE ENCROACHING MID-LATITUDE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NEARING THE U.S. EAST COAST AND BE ACCELERATED RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST. SOME FLUCTUATION IN THE INTENSITY IS STILL POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS SMALL POCKETS OF DRY AIR GET WRAPPED INTO THE EYEWALL AND INNER-CORE REGION FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...THESE WILL LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED ABERRATIONS AND SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER 36 HOURS WHEN INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR BEGINS TO TAKE ITS TOLL ON THE CYCLONE. PREPARATIONS IN BERMUDA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION SINCE THE WEATHER SHOULD BEGIN TO DETERIORATE IN BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT BERMUDA BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. FORECASTER STEWRAT FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/0300Z 27.9N 64.7W 110 KT 12HR VT 05/1200Z 30.0N 65.0W 110 KT 24HR VT 06/0000Z 32.6N 64.7W 110 KT...NEAR BERMUDA 36HR VT 06/1200Z 34.9N 63.2W 105 KT 48HR VT 07/0000Z 37.1N 60.5W 95 KT 72HR VT 08/0000Z 43.5N 51.5W 70 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 09/0000Z 53.0N 35.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 10/0000Z 58.5N 14.9W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL NNNN
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