ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 31 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT THU SEP 04 2003 FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AND DROPSONDE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTERS A COUPLE OF HOURS AGO INDICATE SOME WEAKENING. CURRENT INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 105 KT...AND THIS MIGHT BE A LITTLE ON THE HIGH SIDE. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW LOOKS FAIRLY SYMMETRICAL... SUGGESTING THAT SHEAR IS NOT TOO STRONG. SINCE FABIAN SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER WARM WATERS FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...SOME SLIGHT RE-STRENGTHENING MAY OCCUR. FABIAN IS GRADUALLY TURNING TOWARD THE NORTH AS IT MOVES AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH. SIGNIFICANT ACCELERATION IS LIKELY TO COMMENCE IN ABOUT 48 HOURS OR SO AS THE HURRICANE BEGINS TO GET CAUGHT UP IN THE WESTERLIES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND CONTINUES TO SHOW FABIAN PASSING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO BERMUDA. ACCORDINGLY...THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THAT ISLAND. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER OF THIS HURRICANE...BECAUSE FABIAN IS LARGE AND STRONG WINDS EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/0900Z 24.2N 63.5W 105 KT 12HR VT 04/1800Z 25.7N 64.3W 110 KT 24HR VT 05/0600Z 28.3N 65.3W 110 KT 36HR VT 05/1800Z 31.0N 65.4W 110 KT 48HR VT 06/0600Z 33.7N 64.5W 100 KT 72HR VT 07/0600Z 40.0N 58.0W 75 KT 96HR VT 08/0600Z 48.0N 45.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 09/0600Z 56.0N 30.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC