ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT WED SEP 03 2003 THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE EYE IS NOT AS DISTINCT AS YESTERDAY BUT IT IS STILL WELL DEFINED AND SURROUNDED BY A RING OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE OUTFLOW IS NOT PRESENT ON THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE DUE TO SHEAR BUT IS FAIR ELSEWHERE. INITIAL INTENSITY IS CONSERVATIVELY HELD AT 115 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH T-NUMBERS ARE COMING DOWN...I WOULD RATHER WAIT UNTIL A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE CHECKS FABIAN THIS AFTERNOON TO LOWER THE WINDS. CURRENTLY...UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE HEADING FOR FABIAN. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE ITS ASSOCIATED STRONG UPPER-LEVEL ANTICLONE. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE HURRICANE COULD MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY BUT MOST LIKELY IT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL AND CLIMATOLOGY. THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS THAT FABIAN WILL BEGIN A NEW CYCLE OF INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR TERM. FABIAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. FABIAN IS ON THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND READY TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW AHEAD OF THE LARGE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS IS THE TYPICAL PATTERN WHICH FAVORS RECURVATURE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FABIAN IS THEN EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST PASSING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO BERMUDA BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS GUNA AND GUNS. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/1500Z 22.4N 62.7W 115 KT 12HR VT 04/0000Z 23.3N 63.5W 115 KT 24HR VT 04/1200Z 25.0N 65.0W 110 KT 36HR VT 05/0000Z 27.0N 66.0W 105 KT 48HR VT 05/1200Z 29.5N 66.5W 100 KT 72HR VT 06/1200Z 34.5N 65.5W 90 KT 96HR VT 07/1200Z 39.5N 60.5W 80 KT 120HR VT 08/1200Z 48.5N 48.0W 60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC