ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT TUE SEP 02 2003 THE HURRICANE HUNTERS FOUND A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CENTRAL PRESSURE THAN ON THE PREVIOUS MISSION AND...BASED ON FLIGHT-LEVEL AND DROPSONDE WINDS...THE INTENSITY IS DOWN A BIT...TO 120 KT. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT RAGGED BUT THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF VERY COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE EYE. WE SEE LITTLE EVIDENCE OF ANYTHING IN THE ENVIRONMENT THAT WOULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING...SO ANY CHANGES IN INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO SHOULD BE THE RESULT OF INTERNAL DYNAMICS. SINCE THESE ARE IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MERELY MAINTAINS THE CURRENT STRENGTH FOR A WHILE AND THEN SHOWS GRADUAL WEAKENING DUE TO COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. LATEST FIXES FROM AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE INDICATE A LITTLE MORE NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION...WHICH HAS BEEN EXPECTED. THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED. A LARGE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WITHIN 72 HOURS...WHICH WILL WEAKEN THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH OF FABIAN. THE HURRICANE SHOULD BE GUIDED BY THE FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND...LATE IN THE PERIOD...BEGIN TO ACCELERATE IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH. THIS OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT NOT AS FAR EAST AS THE LATEST U.K. MET AND GFS FORECASTS. ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST TRACK IS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS OF THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...LARGE AND DANGEROUS SWELLS/WAVES FROM FABIAN SHOULD IMPACT THESE ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECASTER PASCH/RHOME FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/0900Z 19.8N 59.7W 120 KT 12HR VT 02/1800Z 20.4N 61.1W 120 KT 24HR VT 03/0600Z 21.5N 63.0W 120 KT 36HR VT 03/1800Z 23.0N 64.3W 120 KT 48HR VT 04/0600Z 24.5N 65.2W 115 KT 72HR VT 05/0600Z 28.0N 67.0W 105 KT 96HR VT 06/0600Z 33.5N 67.5W 95 KT 120HR VT 07/0600Z 41.0N 64.0W 85 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC