Hurricane FABIAN

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HURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON SEP 01 2003
 
SATELLITE T NUMBERS AT 18Z WERE 5.5 TO 6.0...102 TO 115 KT...BUT THE
EYEWALL CONVECTION HAS BECOME COLDER AND MORE SYMMETRIC SINCE THEN. 
THE LATEST RAW ODT ESTIMATE WAS NEAR 130 KT.  RECENT REPORTS FROM A
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 140 KT. 
THIS CORRESPONDS TO 125 KT AT THE SURFACE...WHICH WILL BE THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY.  THE OUTFLOW PATTERN HAS ALSO BECOME MORE
SYMMETRIC SINCE THIS MORNING.  OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...EYEWALL
DYNAMICS WILL LIKELY CONTROL THE INTENSITY AND SO FLUCTUATIONS IN
STRENGTH ARE TO BE EXPECTED.  THERE REMAINS A BAND OF WESTERLY
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE WHICH MIGHT
CONTRIBUTE TO A WEAKENING TREND IN 36-48 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THE GFS
CONTINUES TO ELIMINATE THESE WESTERLIES. FABIAN IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN A POWERFUL HURRICANE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. 
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 285/10...TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.   ALL
GUIDANCE INDICATES A CONTINUED RIGHTWARD TREND OF THE STORM HEADING
THAT SHOULD LIMIT THE IMPACT OF FABIAN IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO
LARGE SWELLS AND/OR DANGEROUS SURF.

THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS CONVERGED SOME THIS AFTERNOON. THE CANADIAN
AND GFS MODELS...WHICH WERE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE...HAVE SHIFTED EASTWARD...WHILE THE NOGAPS HAS SHIFTED
WESTWARD.  THE GUIDANCE IS NOW IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE NORTH WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AS THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ERODES AND SHIFTS EASTWARD.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT AND
FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  IT IS STILL TOO SOON TO RULE
OUT SOME IMPACT OF FABIAN FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES NORTHWARD.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN/MAINELLI
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      01/2100Z 19.1N  57.8W   125 KT
 12HR VT     02/0600Z 19.6N  59.4W   125 KT
 24HR VT     02/1800Z 20.5N  61.0W   125 KT
 36HR VT     03/0600Z 21.5N  62.5W   120 KT
 48HR VT     03/1800Z 23.0N  64.0W   115 KT
 72HR VT     04/1800Z 26.5N  66.5W   110 KT
 96HR VT     05/1800Z 31.5N  68.5W   100 KT
120HR VT     06/1800Z 38.0N  68.0W    90 KT
 
 
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