ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT MON SEP 01 2003 THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS HAVE BEEN INVESTIGATING FABIAN FOR THE FIRST TIME. ALTHOUGH THEY FOUND THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS NOT AS LOW AS PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED VIA SATELLITE...THEY MEASURED WINDS TO 133 KT AT THE 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL. USING THE 90 PERCENT RULE FOR 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS YIELDS A SIMILAR INTENSITY AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF A STRONG HURRICANE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...SO CHANGES IN STRENGTH WILL PROBABLY BE DUE TO INNER CORE PROCESSES SUCH AS EYEWALL REPLACEMENTS. HOWEVER FABIAN SHOULD REMAIN A POWERFUL HURRICANE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS ABOUT THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS FEW PACKAGES. A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN CANADA IS PREDICTED TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AND AMPLIFY OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SHOULD BREAK DOWN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE THAT IS CURRENTLY TO THE NORTH OF FABIAN...AND CAUSE THE HURRICANE TO TURN TOWARD A MORE NORTHWARD HEADING. THE NOAA G-IV JET SAMPLED THE ENVIRONMENT OF FABIAN YESTERDAY EVENING...AND THOSE DATA SHOULD HAVE BEEN ASSIMILATED INTO THE 00Z RUN OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. ONE INTERESTING ASPECT WAS THAT THE INITIALIZATION OF THE 00Z RUN OF THE GFS SHOWED A MUCH STRONGER CIRCULATION OF FABIAN THAN IN THE EARLIER RUNS. THIS WAS PROBABLY DUE TO THE SAMPLING SOME OF THE OUTER CIRCULATION OF THE HURRICANE WITH GPS DROPSONDES FROM THE JET MISSION. EVEN THOUGH THE 00Z RUN USED THIS MORE REALISTIC RENDITION OF FABIAN FOR ITS INITIAL STATE...ITS FORECAST POSITIONS ARE JUST SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST OF THOSE FROM THE PREVIOUS RUN. THE IMPROVED DATA FOR THE LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOULD GIVE US GREATER CONFIDENCE IN THE PREDICTED TURN TO THE RIGHT. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND SOMEWHAT TO THE LEFT OF MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE ...EXCEPT FOR THE CANADIAN MODEL WHICH HAS BEEN SHOWING A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/0900Z 18.6N 55.8W 120 KT 12HR VT 01/1800Z 18.9N 57.2W 120 KT 24HR VT 02/0600Z 19.6N 59.2W 120 KT 36HR VT 02/1800Z 20.7N 61.2W 120 KT 48HR VT 03/0600Z 22.0N 63.0W 120 KT 72HR VT 04/0600Z 25.0N 66.0W 115 KT 96HR VT 05/0600Z 28.5N 68.5W 110 KT 120HR VT 06/0600Z 32.5N 69.5W 100 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC