ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2003 THE EYE HAS BEEN OBSCURED BY THE CIRRUS CANOPY AND CAN NOT BE CLEARLY OBSERVED WITH CONVENTIONAL VISIBLE AND IR IMAGES AT THIS TIME...BUT THE EYE IS VERY DISTINCT ON THE LATEST AVAILABLE MICROWAVE SSM/I DATA. THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED WITH BANDING FEATURES AND GOOD OUTFLOW. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED A BIT...THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE KEPT AT 110 KNOTS. THE TRUE INTENSITY WILL BE KNOWN WHEN THE FIRST RECONNAISSANCE PLANE REACHES THE HURRICANE EARLY MONDAY. THE HURRICANE IS HEADING FOR WARMER WATERS AND THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LOW. THEREFORE...SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SINCE THE LARGE SCALE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE...AT THIS STAGE...THE INTENSITY CHANGES ARE PROBABLY CONTROLLED BY EYEWALL DYNAMICS. FABIAN IS MOVING WESTWARD OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS. A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO..PROVIDING A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST STEERING. THEREAFTER...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD ALLOWING FABIAN TO TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH TRACK GUIDANCE WHICH UNANIMOUSLY BRINGS THE HURRICANE NORTHWARD TO THE EAST OF THE U.S COAST. A NOAA HIGH ALTITUDE JET WILL SAMPLE THE ENVIRONMENT CONTROLLING THE PATH OF FABIAN LATER TODAY. WE SHALL SEE IF THE DATA IMPACTS THE TRACK GUIDANCE. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 31/1500Z 18.1N 53.2W 110 KT 12HR VT 01/0000Z 18.5N 55.0W 115 KT 24HR VT 01/1200Z 19.3N 57.3W 120 KT 36HR VT 02/0000Z 20.0N 59.5W 120 KT 48HR VT 02/1200Z 21.0N 61.5W 120 KT 72HR VT 03/1200Z 23.5N 65.0W 120 KT 96HR VT 04/1200Z 26.0N 67.0W 120 KT 120HR VT 05/1200Z 29.0N 68.5W 120 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC