Hurricane FABIAN

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HURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2003
 
THE EYE HAS BEEN OBSCURED BY THE CIRRUS CANOPY AND CAN NOT BE
CLEARLY OBSERVED WITH CONVENTIONAL VISIBLE AND IR IMAGES AT THIS
TIME...BUT THE EYE IS VERY DISTINCT ON THE LATEST AVAILABLE
MICROWAVE SSM/I DATA. THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS WELL
ORGANIZED WITH BANDING FEATURES AND GOOD OUTFLOW. ALTHOUGH SOME OF
THE T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED A BIT...THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE KEPT AT
110 KNOTS.  THE TRUE INTENSITY WILL BE KNOWN WHEN THE FIRST
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE REACHES THE HURRICANE EARLY MONDAY.
 
THE HURRICANE IS HEADING FOR WARMER WATERS AND THE SHEAR IS FORECAST
TO BE LOW. THEREFORE...SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  SINCE THE LARGE SCALE ENVIRONMENT IS
FAVORABLE...AT THIS STAGE...THE INTENSITY CHANGES ARE PROBABLY
CONTROLLED BY EYEWALL DYNAMICS.
 
FABIAN IS MOVING WESTWARD OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS. A STRONG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO..PROVIDING A GENERAL WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST STEERING. THEREAFTER...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD ALLOWING FABIAN TO TURN MORE TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH TRACK GUIDANCE WHICH
UNANIMOUSLY BRINGS THE HURRICANE NORTHWARD TO THE EAST OF THE U.S
COAST. A NOAA HIGH ALTITUDE JET WILL SAMPLE THE ENVIRONMENT
CONTROLLING THE PATH OF FABIAN LATER TODAY. WE SHALL SEE IF THE
DATA IMPACTS THE TRACK GUIDANCE.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      31/1500Z 18.1N  53.2W   110 KT
 12HR VT     01/0000Z 18.5N  55.0W   115 KT
 24HR VT     01/1200Z 19.3N  57.3W   120 KT
 36HR VT     02/0000Z 20.0N  59.5W   120 KT
 48HR VT     02/1200Z 21.0N  61.5W   120 KT
 72HR VT     03/1200Z 23.5N  65.0W   120 KT
 96HR VT     04/1200Z 26.0N  67.0W   120 KT
120HR VT     05/1200Z 29.0N  68.5W   120 KT
 
 
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