ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2003 INFRARED IMAGERY OF FABIAN CONTINUES TO IMPRESS THIS EVENING WITH DEEP CONVECTION BECOMING MORE SYMMETRIC AROUND A VERY TIGHT...10 NM DIAMETER EYE. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND AIR FORCE GLOBAL CONTINUE TO INCREASE...AND ARE NOW AT 6.0. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS THEREFORE INCREASED TO 110 KT. FABIAN HAS BEEN MOVING IN A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK AT ABOUT 11 KT AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG THIS COURSE THORUGH THE NEXT 72 HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF FABIAN FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. GLOBAL MODELS ALL INDICATING A TROUGH APPROACHING THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES ON DAYS FOUR AND FIVE WILL HELP TO CREATE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE NORTH OF FABIAN AND ALLOW IT TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTWARD. DEGREE TO WHICH THE TROUGH DEEPENS DIFFERS SLIGHTLY WITH NOGAPS MOST AGGRESSIVE... DEVELOPING A FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH AND ALLOWING FABIAN TO TURN NORTH SOONER. CONVERSELY...GFS NOT INDICATING AS DEEP A TROUGH AND REMAINS THE SOUTHERNMOST TRACK OF ALL AVAILABLE MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND LIES BETWEEN A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS TO THE EAST AND THE GFS TO THE WEST. THERE APPEARS TO BE NO REASON FOR FABIAN NOT TO STRENGTHEN A BIT MORE WITH A FORECAST FOR LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SSTS...28 DEGREES CELSIUS. BOTH SHIPS AND GFDL ARE INDICATING SOME STRENGTHENING AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS THIS AS WELL. RADIUS OF 12 FOOT SEAS IS ALSO BEING INCREASED TO 180 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE IN THIS ADVISORY. THIS IS BASED ON A SHIP OBSERVATION OF SEAS GREATER THAN 12 FEET ABOUT 190 NM FROM THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. FURTHER SUPPORT FOR THE LARGER RADII COMES FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE WAVE MODEL OUTPUTS THAT INDICATED A LARGER RADII OF 12 FT SEAS NORTH OF FABIAN. FORECASTER HOLWEG/JARVINEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 31/0300Z 17.7N 50.8W 110 KT 12HR VT 31/1200Z 18.1N 52.5W 115 KT 24HR VT 01/0000Z 18.6N 54.7W 120 KT 36HR VT 01/1200Z 19.2N 57.1W 120 KT 48HR VT 02/0000Z 20.1N 59.2W 120 KT 72HR VT 03/0000Z 22.5N 63.0W 120 KT 96HR VT 04/0000Z 25.0N 66.0W 120 KT 120HR VT 05/0000Z 28.0N 68.0W 120 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC