ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2003 FABIAN SHOWS GOOD ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING...WITH CLOUD TOPS TO -80C NEAR THE CENTER AND EVIDENCE OF OUTER BANDING IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE EYE SEEN IN EARLIER MICROWAVE OVERPASSES IS NOT CURRENTLY APPARENT IN IR IMAGERY. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 90 KT FROM TAB...77 KT FROM AFWA...AND 65 KT FROM SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 70 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS PERHAPS A TOUCH TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS MOTION...285/13. FABIAN REMAINS SOUTH OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WHICH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH 72-96 HR. AFTER THAT TIME...LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THAT A DEVELOPING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD CAUSE THE RIDGE TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD. THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD KEEP FABIAN ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 72-96 HR... WITH A MORE NORTHWESTERLY MOTION THEREAFTER. NHC TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 120 HR FORECAST POSITION IS SOUTHWEST OF THE UKMET...NOGAPS...AND GFDL. FABIAN REMAINS IN A LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...AND THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS FORECAST CONTINUED STRENGTHENING FOR 48 HR. IT IS NOT OBVIOUS WHY THESE MODELS STOP STRENGTHENING THE STORM AT 48 HR... BUT THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL GO ALONG WITH THE GUIDANCE FOR THE TIME BEING. ONE POTENTIAL PROBLEM FOR FABIAN IS THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE ATLANTIC FROM 18N-32N W OF 55W. LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THIS SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN AS FABIAN APPROACHES. HOWEVER...IF IT DOES NOT OR WEAKENS SLOWER THAN FORECAST...IT MIGHT CAUSE INCREASED SHEAR OVER FABIAN IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/0900Z 16.8N 47.5W 70 KT 12HR VT 30/1800Z 17.4N 49.5W 75 KT 24HR VT 31/0600Z 18.0N 51.8W 80 KT 36HR VT 31/1800Z 18.6N 54.0W 85 KT 48HR VT 01/0600Z 19.2N 56.1W 90 KT 72HR VT 02/0600Z 20.5N 59.5W 90 KT 96HR VT 03/0600Z 22.0N 63.0W 90 KT 120HR VT 04/0600Z 24.5N 66.5W 90 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC