Hurricane FABIAN
ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2003 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE DURING THE DAY. THERE IS DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER WITH A CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE CDO. THE OUTFLOW HAS ALSO IMPROVED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT FABIAN HAS REACHED HURRICANE STATUS WITH 65 KNOTS. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LOW BY THE SHIPS MODEL BUT WATER VAPOR IMAGES STILL SHOW A PERSISTENT BAND OF UPPER-LEVEL WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. THIS WOULD IMPEDE SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...ASSUMING THAT THE SHEAR WILL DECREASE ...AS THE MODELS INDICATE...AND TAKING INTO CONSIDERATION THAT THE GFDL MAKES FABIAN A 104-KNOT HURRICANE...STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KNOTS. A RATHER STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE ANCHORED BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN WOULD PROVIDE A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD AS A LARGE TROUGH APPROACHES THE EASTERN UNITED STATES RESULTING IN A TRACK MORE TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE. ONLY THE BAM MODELS HAVE SHIFTED SOUTHWARD SHOWING A WESTWARD TRACK. THIS IS PROBABLY BECAUSE THE GFS IS SHOWING A MORE UNIFORM DEEP-LAYER WESTWARD FLOW THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. FORECASTER AVILA/BERG FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/2100Z 15.7N 45.2W 65 KT 12HR VT 30/0600Z 16.5N 47.5W 70 KT 24HR VT 30/1800Z 17.0N 50.0W 75 KT 36HR VT 31/0600Z 18.0N 52.5W 80 KT 48HR VT 31/1800Z 18.5N 55.0W 85 KT 72HR VT 01/1800Z 19.5N 58.0W 90 KT 96HR VT 02/1800Z 20.5N 61.0W 90 KT 120HR VT 03/1800Z 22.0N 65.0W 90 KT NNNN
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