ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2003 THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN INTERMITTENT BUT THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN IS GRADUALLY IMPROVING. THERE IS A CURVED BAND TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER WITH OUTFLOW EXPANDING NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD. THE LATEST SSMI REVEALED A DISTINCT CENTER AND THE QUIKSCAT SHOWED A WELL-ESTABLISHED CIRCULATION. DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 3.0 FROM ALL AGENCIES SUGGESTING THAT THAT THE WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 45 KNOTS. CURRENTLY...THERE IS A PERSISTENT BAND OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES CENTERED AT 20 DEGREES NORTH EXTENDING FROM THE BAHAMAS EASTWARD TO NEAR 50 DEGREES WEST. IF THIS PATTERN CONTINUES IT WOULD NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR FABIAN TO STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY. ON THE CONTRARY...SHIPS MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE LIGHT SHEAR...LESS THAN 10 KNOTS...AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. BECAUSE THE SHIPS MODEL IS BASED ON THE GFS OUTPUT WHICH HAS BEEN REMOVING THE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES TOO FAST...ONLY A MODEST STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. FABIAN CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT ABOUT 17 KNOTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY RESULTING IN A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE WHICH MOVES FABIAN AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS BEYOND 48 HOURS AND BRINGS THE CYCLONE WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE BUT VERY CLOSE TO THE GFS AND UK MODELS. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/0300Z 15.3N 40.9W 45 KT 12HR VT 29/1200Z 15.5N 43.5W 50 KT 24HR VT 30/0000Z 16.2N 46.0W 55 KT 36HR VT 30/1200Z 17.0N 48.5W 60 KT 48HR VT 31/0000Z 17.5N 50.5W 65 KT 72HR VT 01/0000Z 19.0N 54.0W 70 KT 96HR VT 02/0000Z 20.0N 58.0W 70 KT 120HR VT 03/0000Z 21.0N 62.0W 70 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC