ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2003 DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE AT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...BUT THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN IS RATHER RAGGED-LOOKING AND THERE HAS BEEN AN EROSION OF THE CLOUDS NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER. AN SSM/I IMAGE FROM 1017Z SHOWED THE ERODED AREA AS A LARGE HOLE NEAR 15.6N36W...AND ANIMATED VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATED THAT THIS HOLE WAS NORTH OF THE ACTUAL CENTER. WE WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE CLOUD PATTERN GET JUST A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED BEFORE NAMING THE SYSTEM. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE SUFFICIENTLY WARM AND THERE IS MODEST EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GRADUAL STRENGHTENING...AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. IT IS EMPHASIZED THAT THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN PREDICTING INTENSITY...ESPECIALLY IN 3-5 DAYS. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE REMAINS EMBEDDED IN DEEP EASTERLIES AND CONTINUES TO MOVE QUICKLY...275/18. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG 30-35N LATITUDE SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM. THERE IS A DISTURBANCE NEAR 24N48W WHICH IS CREATING A SLIGHT WEAKNESS...HOWEVER THIS FEATURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH INFLUENCE ON THE MOTION OTHER THAN TO SLOW THE FORWARD SPEED SOMEWHAT. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS IN THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...NEAR THE GFS SOLUTION. THE GFDL...U.K. MET. OFFICE...AND NOGAPS TRACKS ARE SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE NHC TRACK. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/1500Z 15.1N 37.0W 30 KT 12HR VT 29/0000Z 15.4N 39.5W 35 KT 24HR VT 29/1200Z 15.8N 42.3W 40 KT 36HR VT 30/0000Z 16.4N 44.7W 45 KT 48HR VT 30/1200Z 16.9N 47.0W 50 KT 72HR VT 31/1200Z 17.7N 51.3W 55 KT 96HR VT 01/1200Z 18.4N 56.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 02/1200Z 19.5N 61.1W 65 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC