ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2003 HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THERE IS A WELL-DEFINED CLOUD BAND TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER AND THE OUTFLOW IS ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT THE WEST. IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT WESTERLY SHEAR AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BUT NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO SIGNIFICANTLY DISRUPT DEVELOPMENT. THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE LANDFALL OVER HISPANIOLA...WHERE SOME WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED DUE TO HIGH TERRAIN. THEREAFTER...STRENGHTENING IS EXPECTED ONCE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS BACK OVER WATER BETWEEN CUBA...THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA WHERE THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO BE VERY FAVORABLE. THIS FORECAST ASSUMES THAT THE CYCLONE WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY DESTROYED OVER LAND. CURRENTLY...THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT 10 KNOTS STEERED BY A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THIS GENERAL TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 5 DAYS. HOWEVER...STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN BEYOND 3 DAYS AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS BY TO THE NORTH AND BREAKS DOWN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS SCENARIO IS CONSISTENT WITH THE MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE. THE NOGAPS CHANGED ITS TUNE AND IS THE ONLY MODEL MOVING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES. LET'S SEE WHAT HAPPENS IN THE NEXT 12Z MODEL RUNS. AN AIR FORCE PLANE WILL BE IN THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL DETERMINE THE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM. FORECASTER AVILA/MOLLEDA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/1500Z 16.4N 68.6W 30 KT 12HR VT 23/0000Z 17.2N 70.0W 35 KT 24HR VT 23/1200Z 18.5N 72.0W 30 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 24/0000Z 20.0N 74.0W 35 KT...OVER WATER 48HR VT 24/1200Z 21.5N 75.5W 40 KT 72HR VT 25/1200Z 23.5N 77.5W 45 KT 96HR VT 26/1200Z 24.5N 78.5W 50 KT 120HR VT 27/1200Z 25.5N 80.0W 60 KT NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC