ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SAT AUG 16 2003 SATELLITE...RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF ERIKA HAS MOVED INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. THE STEERING PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED SO...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST ABOUT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. FURTHER WEAKENING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO IS ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...ERIKA MAY CAUSE HEAVY RAINS PRIMARILY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT ERIKA MAY HAVE BRIEFLY REACHED HURRICANE STATUS AT LANDFALL. T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB...SAB AND KGWC WERE ON THE RANGE OF 4.0 AND 4.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. IN ADDITION...HIGH RESOLUTION DOPPLER WIND DATA FROM BROWNSVILLE REPORTED PEAK WINDS OF 91 KNOTS AT 2500 FEET WITHIN A SMALL AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO. THIS CORRESPONDS TO AT LEAST 65 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE 987 MB MINIMUM PRESSURE AND THE CLOSED EYEWALL REPORTED BY THE RECON. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/1500Z 25.3N 98.3W 45 KT 12HR VT 17/0000Z 25.0N 100.5W 30 KT 24HR VT 17/1200Z 25.0N 103.0W 25 KT 36HR VT 18/0000Z...DISSIPATING NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC