ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SAT AUG 16 2003 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 265/16. AL OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS SHOW A CONTINUED WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AFTER WHICH DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO. THE GFS AND UKMET MODELS SHOW A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A NORTHWEST TURN AFTER 24 HOURS WHILE THE NOGAPS DOES NOT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES DECREASE THE FORWARD SPEED SOMEWHAT. THE INITIAL POSITION HAS THE CENTER WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE COAST JUST SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE AND THE CENTER WILL BE INLAND SHORTLY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN MONITORING ERIKA AND THESE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT ERIKA REMAINS JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH WITH MAXIMUM 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED WINDS ESTIMATED AT 60 KNOTS. ALSO THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS COME UP A FEW MB TO 994 MB. EVEN SO...THE BROWNSVILLE RADAR SHOWS A WELL-ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH AN EYEWALL THAT IS OPEN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND DOPPLER WINDS TO 80 KNOTS NORTH OF THE CENTER AND WINDS ALMOST AS HIGH TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER. SO ERIKA IS CLOSE TO BEING A HURRICANE. WE MAY NEVER KNOW FOR SURE WHETHER THE WINDS WERE 60 OR 65 KNOTS OR EVEN HIGHER. FIVE KNOTS IS IN THE NOISE LEVEL. FINALLY...THE OPPORTUNITY FOR THE WINDS TO INCREASE IS ABOUT OVER AS MUCH OF THE CIRCULATION IS OVER LAND ERIKA SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES INLAND OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/0900Z 25.5N 97.0W 60 KT 12HR VT 16/1800Z 25.3N 99.3W 40 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 17/0600Z 25.5N 102.0W 25 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 17/1800Z 26.0N 104.5W 20 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC