ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT FRI AUG 15 2003 HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT ERIKA IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THE CYCLONE HAS LARGE CURVED BANDS...GOOD OUTFLOW AND VERY STRONG CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1000 MB BUT MAX WIND AT 850 MB ARE 57 KNOTS SO FAR. THIS CORRESPONDS WITH 45 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM ALL AGENCIES SUGGEST 55 KNOT WINDS. ASSUMING THAT THE AIRPLANE HAS NOT SAMPLED THE MAXIMUM WINDS YET...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 50 KNOTS WHICH IS THE AVERAGE OF BOTH SATELLITE AND RECON ESTIMATES. THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM BUT IT IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO IMPEDE INTENSIFICATION. ERIKA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL. ERIKA IS MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 19 KNOTS. A PERSISTENT LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL LIKELY FORCE ERIKA TO CONTINUE ON A WESTWARD TRACK. THE HIGH IS SO STRONG THAT ERIKA COULD EVEN MOVE A LITTLE SOUTH OF DUE WEST AS SUGGESTED BY SOME TRACK MODELS. THIS MOTION WOULD BRING THE CENTER OF ERIKA TO THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA EARLY SATURDAY. A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED MAY OCCUR AFTER LANDFALL AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS. NOTE: ALTHOUGH ERIKA IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A 65-KNOT HURRICANE...INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE UNCERTAIN. THE FORMATION OF AN INNER CORE...WHICH IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BUT BASICALLY IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST...COULD RESULT IN STRONGER WINDS AT LANDFALL. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR ERIKA ARE AVAILABLE AT THE TPC/NHC WEB SITE...WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV...SELECT ERIKA GRAPHICS. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/2100Z 26.0N 93.5W 50 KT 12HR VT 16/0600Z 26.0N 96.5W 65 KT 24HR VT 16/1800Z 26.0N 100.0W 30 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 17/0600Z 26.0N 103.0W 20 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 17/1800Z 26.0N 106.0W 20 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 18/1800Z...INLAND NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC