ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT THU AUG 14 2003 A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS FOUND A SMALL POORLY DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH WINDS OF 47 KNOTS AT 1000 FEET TO THE NORTH OF THE DEVELOPING CENTER. A DROPSONDE MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1011 MB AND A NORTHWEST WIND ABOUT 300 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE....WITH NO DATA AVAILABLE FROM BELOW. THE INFORMATION FROM THE PLANE IN COMBINATION WITH THE WELL-DEFINED SIGNATURE ON BOTH SATELLITE AND RADAR...SUPPORTS UPGRADING THE SYSTEM TO TROPICAL STORM ERIKA AT THIS TIME. THE OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED AND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW. THEREFORE...A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST MODEL. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN INTENSITY COULD BRING ERIKA INLAND AS A HURRICANE. ERIKA IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS. THERE IS A PERSISTENT STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES PROVIDING A WESTWARD STEERING TO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THEREFORE...ERIKA SHOULD CONTINUE WESTWARD UNTIL LANDFALL EITHER IN SOUTHERN TEXAS OR NORTHERN MEXICO IN ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/2100Z 26.2N 84.4W 35 KT 12HR VT 15/0600Z 26.0N 87.9W 45 KT 24HR VT 15/1800Z 26.0N 92.0W 55 KT 36HR VT 16/0600Z 26.0N 95.0W 60 KT 48HR VT 16/1800Z 26.0N 97.5W 60 KT 72HR VT 17/1800Z 26.0N 105.0W 25 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC