ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2003 BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...THE SURFACE CENTER APPEARS TO BE JUST INLAND OVER GEORGIA JUST SOUTHWEST OF SAVANNAH. SATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES ARE STILL OVER WATER TO THE EAST BUT ARE PROBABLY THE LOCATION OF A MID-LEVEL CENTER. THERE IS ABOUT 15 KNOTS OF WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE DEPRESSION WHICH WOULD ACCOUNT FOR THE UPPER CENTER BEING DISPLACED FROM THE SURFACE CENTER. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/08. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS FORECAST BY THE GFS MODEL. A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED ABOUT 75 N MI NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE CENTER AND THERE COULD BE 25-30 KNOT WINDS IN THIS CONVECTION. OTHERWISE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE NOTHING HIGHER THAN ABOUT 20 KNOTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY BECOME A REMNANT LOW OVER LAND AND DISSIPATE BY 48 HOURS. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS REPORTED ALONG THE COAST FROM SAVANNAH TO CHARLESTON. THERE REMAINS SOME POTENTIAL FOR 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN ALONG THE PATH OF THE DEPRESSION. SINCE THE DEPRESSION CENTER IS OVER LAND...THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. FUTURE INFORMATION WILL BE CONTAINED IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/0900Z 31.9N 81.5W 25 KT...INLAND 12HR VT 26/1800Z 32.9N 82.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 27/0600Z 34.3N 82.1W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 27/1800Z 35.3N 81.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC