ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2003 THERE ARE NO STRONG WINDS EVIDENT FROM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB MIAMI AND SAB WASHINGTON ARE LOWER THAN THEY WERE AT 18Z. HOWEVER ON RECENT SR-88D RADAR IMAGES A BANDING FEATURE IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED OVER THE NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. BASED ON THE 88D VELOCITY DATA...THE INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT BUT THESE WINDS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING OVER A VERY SMALL AREA NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR PREVAILS OVER THE AREA AND THE SYSTEM IS MOVING OVER RELATIVELY COOL WATERS TO THE WEST OF THE GULF STREAM. THEREFORE SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IS UNLIKELY BEFORE LANDFALL. LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR FIXES INDICATE THAT THE FORWARD SPEED HAS SLOWED TO AN ESTIMATED 8 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS SITUATED ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD STEERING CURRENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. BASED ON THE SLOWER INITIAL MOTION...THE OFFICIAL FORECASTS IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE. THE BAM AND GFDL TRACK FORECASTS ARE EVEN SLOWER AND FARTHER WEST. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS ITS POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA... PARTICULARLY IF IT MOVES SLOWLY. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/0300Z 31.1N 80.9W 30 KT 12HR VT 26/1200Z 32.5N 81.5W 30 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 27/0000Z 34.0N 81.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 27/1200Z 35.5N 81.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC