ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2003 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN HAS FORMED FROM THE SAME TROPICAL WAVE WHICH SPAWNED TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX. ANALYSIS OF SATELLITE IMAGES AND UPPER AIR DATA SHOW THAT A CONVECTIVE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE MOVED OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND REACHED THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS YESTERDAY. THE SYSTEM THEN MOVED NORTHWARD PARALLEL TO THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. A SURFACE CIRCULATION WITH ENOUGH CONVECTION HAS FORMED THIS MORNING AS INDICATED BY THE NWS COASTAL RADARS...HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS VERY HIGH FOR A TYPICAL TROPICAL DEPRESSION BUT THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MUCH HIGHER PRESSURE ENVIRONMENT. THIS PATTERN WOULD ALLOW WINDS OF AT LEAST 25 KNOTS MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER WHERE THE GRADIENT IS THE STRONGEST. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING OVER SHELF WATER THAT IS NOT PARTICULARLY WARM AND THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ABOUT 11 KNOTS AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE DEPRESSION CROSSES THE COAST LATER TONIGHT. DO NOT FOCUS ON THE CENTER...AS MOST OF THE RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE WELL REMOVED FROM IT. AN AIR FORCE PLANE WILL BE IN THE AREA SHORTLY. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/1800Z 30.2N 80.6W 25 KT 12HR VT 26/0000Z 31.5N 81.0W 30 KT 24HR VT 26/1200Z 33.5N 81.5W 20 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 27/0000Z 35.5N 81.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC