ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2003 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 130/15. THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS THE SAME AS IN PREVIOUS ADVISORIES WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING AROUND A NEARLY STATIONARY DEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS. ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE MODELS SHOW THIS SCENARIO AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THERE IS LITTLE CONVECTION REMAINING AND IT IS FAR SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD CENTER. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS REDUCED TO 30 KNOTS BASES ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND A CONTINUATION OF THE ONGOING WEAKENING TREND. AS THE REMNANT LOW MOVES SOUTH AND THEN WEST ...IT WILL ENCOUNTER WARMER WATER AND LESS VERTICAL SHEAR...BUT ALL GUIDANCE CALLS FOR NOTHING MORE THAN A REMNANT LOW FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY. FUTURE INFORMATION WILL BE CONTAINED IN THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST FROM THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/2100Z 40.4N 38.8W 30 KT...DISSIPATING 12HR VT 21/0600Z 39.3N 37.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 21/1800Z 37.3N 36.2W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 22/0600Z 35.5N 36.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 22/1800Z 34.0N 37.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 23/1800Z 32.5N 40.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 24/1800Z 32.0N 44.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 25/1800Z 32.0N 49.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC