Hurricane DANNY
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2003
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 130/15. THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS
THE SAME AS IN PREVIOUS ADVISORIES WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING AROUND A
NEARLY STATIONARY DEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS. ALL
OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE MODELS SHOW THIS SCENARIO AND SO DOES THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
THERE IS LITTLE CONVECTION REMAINING AND IT IS FAR SOUTHEAST OF THE
LOW LEVEL CLOUD CENTER. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS REDUCED TO 30
KNOTS BASES ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND A CONTINUATION OF THE
ONGOING WEAKENING TREND. AS THE REMNANT LOW MOVES SOUTH AND THEN
WEST ...IT WILL ENCOUNTER WARMER WATER AND LESS VERTICAL
SHEAR...BUT ALL GUIDANCE CALLS FOR NOTHING MORE THAN A REMNANT LOW
FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY. FUTURE
INFORMATION WILL BE CONTAINED IN THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST FROM THE
OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER
FZNT01 KWBC..
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 20/2100Z 40.4N 38.8W 30 KT...DISSIPATING
12HR VT 21/0600Z 39.3N 37.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 21/1800Z 37.3N 36.2W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 22/0600Z 35.5N 36.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 22/1800Z 34.0N 37.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 23/1800Z 32.5N 40.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 24/1800Z 32.0N 44.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 25/1800Z 32.0N 49.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
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