ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2003 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 110/14. THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS THE SAME AS IN PREVIOUS ADVISORIES WITH THE STORM MOVING AROUND A NEARLY STATIONARY DEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS. ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE MODELS SHOW THIS SCENARIO AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE ONLY DEEP CONVECTION REMAINING IS A SMALL AREA LOCATED ABOUT 175 N MI SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. A 12Z SHIP REPORT OF 39 KNOTS WAS LOCATED ABOUT 90 N MI SOUTH OF THE CENTER. EVEN WITH A SMALL POSITIVE BIAS...THE SHIP SUPPORTS A 40 KNOT INTENSITY AT 12Z. WITH A WEAKENING TREND IN PROGRESS...THE 15Z WIND SPEED ESTIMATE IS 35 KNOTS. ALL GUIDANCE EXCEPT PURE STATISTICAL CALLS FOR CONTINUED WEAKENING AND DANNY IS FORECAST TO BE A 20 KNOT REMANT LOW IN 24 HOURS. THE TRACK BRINGS DANNY OVER WARMER WATER AND UNDER LESS VERTICAL SHEAR IN A FEW DAYS...BUT THE GUIDANCE IMPLIES THAT IT IS UNLIKELY THAT DANNY WILL RE-INTENSIFY. THE PENN STATE PHASE ANALYSIS SHOWS DANNY TO BE COLD CORE. WHILE DANNY MAY NOT BE EXTRATROPICAL...IT IS CLEARLY NOT VERY TROPICAL EITHER. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/1500Z 41.6N 40.0W 35 KT 12HR VT 21/0000Z 40.6N 38.1W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 24HR VT 21/1200Z 39.1N 36.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 22/0000Z 37.5N 36.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 22/1200Z 36.0N 36.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 23/1200Z 34.5N 38.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 24/1200Z 33.5N 41.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 25/1200Z 33.0N 45.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC