| HOME | ARCHIVES | FORECASTS | IMAGERY | ABOUT NHC | RECONNAISSANCE |

---

Hurricane DANNY (Text)

ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2003
 
THE DEEP CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY ASSOCIATED WITH DANNY HAS CONTINUED
TO SHEAR OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL
INDICATES A FAIRLY TIGHT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND AN EARLIER
QUIKSCAT OVERPASS HAD SEVERAL 45-50 KT UNCONTAMINATED WIND SPEEDS
ON THE SOUTH SIDE. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T3.0
...OR 45 KT...SO THE INTENSITY INTENSITY IS ONLY DECREASED TO 45
KT. ALSO...DRIFTING BUOY 44628 REPORTED AT 06Z A PRESSURE OF 1008.0
MB...WHICH FURTHER SUPPORTS THE 45 KT INTENSITY. THIS REPORT WAS
ALSO USED TO ADJUST THE CENTRAL PRESSURE DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 105/12.  THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. DANNY IS MOVING AROUND THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY A LARGE AND NEARLY STATIONARY SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
THAT IS ORIENTED EAST-WEST ALONG 35N LATITUDE. NEARLY ALL OF THE
NHC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT A SOUTHEASTWARD TURN
SHOULD BEGIN IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO FOLLOWED BY A SOUTHERLY
MOTION IN 24-36 HOURS.  AFTER THAT...DANNY IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE
A LOOP AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS AND MOVE SOUTHWEST OR EVEN WESTWARD
OVER WARMER WATER BY DAY 4 . THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFS...
GFDL...AND UKMET MODELS.
 
DANNY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER
COOLER WATER AND REMAINS UNDER 20-25 KT NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR.
HOWEVER...WATER TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 24C BENEATH THE CYCLONE...
ABOUT 3C WARMER THAN THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS INDICATING...SO
THE WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION MAY NOT BE AS FAST AS THE SHIPS MODEL
IS FORECASTING. BY 36-48 HOURS...THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN TO ONLY 5-10 KT...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT SOME REGENERATION
IS POSSIBLE IF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION DOES NOT WEAKEN TOO MUCH
BEFORE THEN.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      20/0900Z 42.4N  41.7W    45 KT
 12HR VT     20/1800Z 41.6N  39.7W    35 KT
 24HR VT     21/0600Z 40.0N  37.8W    30 KT
 36HR VT     21/1800Z 38.5N  37.4W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 48HR VT     22/0600Z 36.8N  37.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     23/0600Z 34.8N  39.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     24/0600Z 33.5N  42.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     25/0600Z 33.0N  46.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
NNNN