ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2003 DANNY HAS SHEARED OFF OVER THE COLDER NORTH ATLANTIC THIS EVENING... WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NOW ALMOST COMPLETELY EXPOSED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CONVECTION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 65 KT FROM SAB AND 55 KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA AT 00Z. THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE REDUCED TO 50 KT GIVEN THE DECAY OF THE CLOUD PATTERN THAT HAS OCCURRED SINCE 00Z...ALONG WITH A RECENT QUIKSCAT OVERPASS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 090/12. DANNY IS MOVING AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC...AND ALL DATA INDICATE A SOUTHEASTWARD TURN SHOULD BEGIN IN THE NEXT 12-24 HR. DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FORECAST DANNY TO PERFORM A LOOP AROUND THE RIDGE AND WIND UP MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD BY DAY 5...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WILL CONTINUE TO CALL FOR THIS SCENARIO. THE CURRENT TRACK IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION. DANNY SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HR...AND AS SHOWN IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST IT MAY WELL BE A REMNANT LOW BY 48 HR. AFTER THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE OR ITS REMAINS WILL BE OVER WARMER WATER IN FORECAST UPPER-LEVEL WINDS THAT WOULD NORMALLY BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THUS... THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT DANNY COULD RE-GENERATE. THIS WILL REMAIN AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO UNTIL WE CAN SEE HOW MUCH OF DANNY WILL REMAIN TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE BETTER ENVIRONMENT. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/0300Z 42.7N 43.4W 50 KT 12HR VT 20/1200Z 42.4N 41.1W 40 KT 24HR VT 21/0000Z 40.9N 38.6W 30 KT 36HR VT 21/1200Z 39.1N 37.4W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 48HR VT 22/0000Z 37.5N 37.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 23/0000Z 35.5N 38.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 24/0000Z 34.5N 41.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 25/0000Z 33.5N 44.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC