ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2003 DANNY BEGAN TO WEAKEN BUT STILL HAS AN EXCELLENT PRESENTATION ON SATELLITE. DVORAK T-NUMBERS SUPPORT AT LEAST 60 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. DANNY WILL CONTINUE OVER COLD WATERS AND WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AT A FASTER PACE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DANNY HAS ALSO BEGAN TO MOVE EASTWARD AND IT WILL BE SOON MAKING A LONG LOOP AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH. THIS IS THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE. DANNY OR ITS REMNANTS COULD RE-INTENSIFY AFTER 48 HOURS OR SO WHILE MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD OVER WARMER WATER AND WITH LESS VERTICAL SHEAR. THIS POSSIBILITY IS NOT YET REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AS ITS CHANCE OF OCCURRING APPEARS TO BE SLIM. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/2100Z 42.8N 44.8W 60 KT 12HR VT 20/0600Z 43.2N 41.8W 45 KT 24HR VT 20/1800Z 42.0N 39.0W 35 KT 36HR VT 21/0600Z 40.0N 37.5W 30 KT 48HR VT 21/1800Z 38.5N 37.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 72HR VT 22/1800Z 36.0N 37.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 23/1800Z 34.0N 41.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 24/1800Z 33.5N 44.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC