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Hurricane DANNY

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TROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2003
 
DANNY BEGAN TO WEAKEN BUT STILL HAS AN EXCELLENT PRESENTATION ON
SATELLITE. DVORAK T-NUMBERS SUPPORT AT LEAST 60 KNOTS AT THIS
TIME. DANNY WILL CONTINUE OVER COLD WATERS AND WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AT
A FASTER PACE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

DANNY HAS ALSO BEGAN TO MOVE EASTWARD AND IT WILL BE SOON MAKING A
LONG LOOP AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH. THIS IS THE SOLUTION
PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE.  DANNY OR ITS REMNANTS
COULD RE-INTENSIFY AFTER 48 HOURS OR SO WHILE MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD
OVER WARMER WATER AND WITH LESS VERTICAL SHEAR.  THIS POSSIBILITY
IS NOT YET REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AS ITS CHANCE OF
OCCURRING APPEARS TO BE SLIM.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      19/2100Z 42.8N  44.8W    60 KT
 12HR VT     20/0600Z 43.2N  41.8W    45 KT
 24HR VT     20/1800Z 42.0N  39.0W    35 KT
 36HR VT     21/0600Z 40.0N  37.5W    30 KT
 48HR VT     21/1800Z 38.5N  37.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 72HR VT     22/1800Z 36.0N  37.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     23/1800Z 34.0N  41.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     24/1800Z 33.5N  44.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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