ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2003 SATELLITE IMAGES AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT FORMED FROM THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH CIRCULATION AND CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE SYSTEM IS POORLY ORGANIZED AND ALTHOUGH BOTH ENVIRONMENTAL AND CENTRAL PRESSURES ARE VERY HIGH...THE GRADIENT SUPPORTS AT LEAST 25 KNOT WINDS. THE SHEAR IS LOW...FAVORING STRENGTHENING BUT THE DEPRESSION WILL SOON REACH COOLER WATERS SO INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED. YET...A SMALL INCREASE IN THE WINDS COULD BRING THE DEPRESSION TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS. THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 11 KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. IN ABOUT 24 TO 36 HOURS...THE DEPRESSION SHOULD BE ALREADY NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND EAST. THE WESTERLIES NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH ARE NOT VERY STRONG. THEREFORE...NO SIGNIFICANT EASTWARD ACCELERATION IS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST. THIS TRACK IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE IS IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/1500Z 31.5N 54.5W 25 KT 12HR VT 17/0000Z 33.3N 56.0W 30 KT 24HR VT 17/1200Z 35.0N 57.0W 30 KT 36HR VT 18/0000Z 37.0N 56.5W 30 KT 48HR VT 18/1200Z 38.5N 55.0W 30 KT 72HR VT 19/1200Z 41.0N 51.0W 30 KT 96HR VT 20/1200Z 42.0N 48.0W 30 KT 120HR VT 21/1200Z 42.0N 44.0W 30 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC