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Tropical Depression FIVE

ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2003
 
SATELLITE IMAGES AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT FORMED FROM THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE
IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH CIRCULATION AND
CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE SYSTEM IS
POORLY ORGANIZED AND ALTHOUGH BOTH ENVIRONMENTAL AND CENTRAL
PRESSURES ARE VERY HIGH...THE GRADIENT SUPPORTS AT LEAST 25 KNOT
WINDS. THE SHEAR IS LOW...FAVORING STRENGTHENING BUT THE DEPRESSION
WILL SOON REACH COOLER WATERS SO INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO BE
LIMITED. YET...A SMALL INCREASE IN THE WINDS COULD BRING THE
DEPRESSION TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS.
 
THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 11 KNOTS
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. IN ABOUT 24 TO 36
HOURS...THE DEPRESSION SHOULD BE ALREADY NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS
AND WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND EAST. THE
WESTERLIES NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH ARE NOT VERY STRONG.
THEREFORE...NO SIGNIFICANT EASTWARD ACCELERATION IS INDICATED IN
THE FORECAST. THIS TRACK IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ALL AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE.
 
THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE IS IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES.
 
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/1500Z 31.5N  54.5W    25 KT
 12HR VT     17/0000Z 33.3N  56.0W    30 KT
 24HR VT     17/1200Z 35.0N  57.0W    30 KT
 36HR VT     18/0000Z 37.0N  56.5W    30 KT
 48HR VT     18/1200Z 38.5N  55.0W    30 KT
 72HR VT     19/1200Z 41.0N  51.0W    30 KT
 96HR VT     20/1200Z 42.0N  48.0W    30 KT
120HR VT     21/1200Z 42.0N  44.0W    30 KT
 
 
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