ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2003 CLAUDETTE IS STRUGGLING WITH SHEAR AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORM HAS HAD AT LEAST A PARTIAL EYEWALL MOST OF THE DAY ACCORDING TO AIRCRAFT DATA. HOWEVER...RECENT HOUSTON WSR-88D DATA INDICATE THE EYEWALL IS LESS WELL DEFINED AND SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CENTER IS CLOSE TO BECOMING EXPOSED. THE NOAA AIRCRAFT INDICATES THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB WITH FLIGHT-LEVEL AND DROPSONDE WINDS INDICATING THE INTENSITY IS STILL 55 KT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SEVERAL OIL RIGS NEAR THE CENTER ARE REPORTING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS SEVERAL HUNDRED FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/6. THIS IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE LONGER TERM MOTION OF 340/7 AND A SHORTER TERM MOTION SINCE 15Z THAT IS SLOWER AND TO THE LEFT. IT IS TOO EARLY TO SAY IF THIS IS THE START OF THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TURN...BUT ALL AVAILABLE DATA SUGGEST SUCH A TURN SHOULD BEGIN IN THE NEXT 6-18 HR. THUS... THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. THE FORECAST TRACK NUDGED SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION...AND CALLS FOR LANDFALL ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST IN 24-36 HR. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT WHILE A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL LOW MAY BE PRESENT SOUTHWEST OF CLAUDETTE...IT IS SO FAR NOT DOING MUCH TO SHELTER THE STORM FROM THE SHEAR. IN FACT...THE OUTFLOW LOOKS LESS IMPREESIVE THAN 6 HR AGO. LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR COULD DECREASE SOMEWHAT BEFORE LANDFALL...WHICH WOULD ALLOW DEVELOPMENT. ON THE OTHER HAND...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT DRY AIR AROUND CLAUDETTE...WHICH WOULD ACT AS A BRAKE. SHIPS SHOWS LITTLE STRENGTHENING...WHILE THE GFDL BRINGS THE SYSTEM TO 82 KT BEFORE LANDFALL. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING SUCH AS HAS OCCURRED FOR THE PAST TWO DAYS AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES. AFTER LANDFALL...CLAUDETTE SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN UNTIL DISSIPATION. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/2100Z 27.5N 93.1W 55 KT 12HR VT 15/0600Z 27.9N 94.0W 60 KT 24HR VT 15/1800Z 28.3N 95.6W 65 KT 36HR VT 16/0600Z 28.7N 97.3W 45 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 16/1800Z 29.0N 99.1W 30 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 17/1800Z 29.0N 102.5W 20 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING 96HR VT 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC