ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2003 CLAUDETTE IS BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS MOVED INTO THE CONVECTION IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND THE LAST TWO FIXES FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NOTED AN OPEN EYEWALL WAS PRESENT. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS NEAR 991 MB AND THE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 65-70 KT. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 55 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/5. MORNING RAWINSONDE DATA AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE CURRENT NORTHWARD MOTION SHOULD SOON BE BLOCKED...AS CLAUDETTE IS ABOUT TO MEET A SUBSTANTIAL RIDGE AT 400 MB AND BELOW ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST. THIS SHOULD BRING ABOUT THE TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST THAT HAS BEEN FORECAST BY TRACK GUIDANCE FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHEN WILL THE TURN OCCUR? THE MODELS SUGGEST IT SHOULD OCCUR ALMOST IMMEDIATELY...BUT THIS IS NOT YET SUPPORTED BY SATELLITE OR THE OCCASIONAL APPEARANCE OF THE CENTER ON THE HOUSTON WSR-88D. THE TRACK FORECAST CALLS FOR A CONTINUED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR 6-12 HR...FOLLWED BY THE TURN. THE TRACK IS THEREFORE NUDGED NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. IT IS ALSO FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK...BUT NOT AS FAST AS THE GUIDANCE MODELS. THIS TRACK REQUIRES WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW MAY BE FORMING WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF CLAUDETTE. THIS MAY HELP BRING ABOUT THE TURN...AND MAY ALSO HELP SHELTER THE STORM FROM THE PERSISTENT SHEAR. INDEED...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE OUTFLOW IS ALREADY IMPROVING IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. THIS WOULD ALLOW GREATER DEVELOPMENT THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE CONVECTIVE TOPS ARE NOT EXCEPTIONALLY COLD AT THE MOMENT AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT DRY AIR AROUND CLAUDETTE... WHICH WOULD ACT AS A BRAKE ON DEVELOPMENT. SHIPS SHOWS LITTLE STRENGTHENING...WHILE THE GFDL BRINGS THE SYSTEM TO 90 KT BEFORE LANDFALL. BASED ON THE IMPROVED OUTFLOW AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A LESS HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT...THE INTENSITY FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL IS INCREASED SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. AFTER LANDFALL... CLAUDETTE SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN UNTIL DISSIPATION. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/1500Z 26.9N 92.7W 55 KT 12HR VT 15/0000Z 27.4N 93.2W 60 KT 24HR VT 15/1200Z 27.8N 94.5W 65 KT 36HR VT 16/0000Z 28.3N 96.3W 70 KT 48HR VT 16/1200Z 28.6N 98.2W 40 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 17/1200Z 29.0N 101.5W 25 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING 96HR VT 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC