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Tropical Storm CLAUDETTE

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TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2003
 
THIS MORNINGS INTENSIFICATION IS OVER...FOR NOW...AS THE CONVECTION
IS BEING SHEARED AWAY FROM THE CIRCULATION CENTER. THE OVERALL
CIRCULATION IS MUCH BETTER DEFINED NOW COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO.THE
PRESSURE FELL TO AS LOW AS 994 MB EARLIER BUT IS NOW BACK UP TO 997
MB.  THE MOST RECENT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT JUST REPORTED PEAK
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 69 KT...BUT WITH THE CONVECTION MOVING AWAY
FROM THE CENTER I AM NOT GOING TO BUMP THE ADVISORY INTENSITY UP AT
THIS TIME.  

CLAUDETTE HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE TODAY AND THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS STATIONARY.  THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY CAUGHT IN THE
WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THE RIDGE IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES.  GLOBAL MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS IN BUILDING
THE LATTER RIDGE EASTWARD AS THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. PULLS
OUT.  ONCE THIS OCCURS...A MORE DEFINITIVE WESTWARD MOTION SHOULD
BEGIN.  HOWEVER...IT SEEMS AS THOUGH THIS PROCESS IS GOING TO TAKE
A LITTLE LONGER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND THIS WILL DELAY
THE NECESSITY FOR WARNINGS FOR PERHAPS ANOTHER 12 HOURS OR SO.

THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL EVOLUTION OF THE
UPPER FLOW PATTERNS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THAT WILL HAVE
MUCH TO SAY ABOUT WHAT KIND OF SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL.  THE GFS AND
THE CANADIAN MODELS KEEP THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE CURRENTLY OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE WELL TO THE SOUTH OF CLAUDETTE...HELPING TO
REINFORCE STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR IN TWO TO THREE DAYS. AN OPPOSING
POINT OF VIEW IS OFFERED BY THE NOGAPS AND UKMET MODELS...WHICH
BRING A PIECE OF THE HIGH NORTHWARD TO PROVIDE A MORE FAVORABLE
UPPER ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION.  I AM HARD PRESSED AT THIS
TIME TO FIND A REASON TO FAVOR ONE SOLUTION OVER THE OTHER.  OUR
EXPLICIT INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO CALL FOR GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING OF CLAUDETTE TO HURRICANE STATUS AND THAT WILL REMAIN
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR NOW.
 
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      13/2100Z 25.3N  92.4W    50 KT
 12HR VT     14/0600Z 25.5N  92.8W    50 KT
 24HR VT     14/1800Z 26.0N  94.0W    55 KT
 36HR VT     15/0600Z 26.3N  95.4W    60 KT
 48HR VT     15/1800Z 26.5N  97.0W    65 KT
 72HR VT     16/1800Z 26.5N 100.0W    30 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     17/1800Z 26.5N 102.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
120HR VT     18/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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