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Tropical Storm CLAUDETTE

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TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2003

AS YOGI BERRA SAID...ITS DEJA VU ALL OVER AGAIN.  CLAUDETTE LOOKS
THE SAME AS IT DID LAST NIGHT.  IT IS STILL BEING SHEARED AND THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS FULLY EXPOSED.  FLIGHT LEVEL MAXIMUM WINDS
FROM THE RECON ARE ALMOST IDENTICAL...51 KTS VERSUS 52 KTS.  THE
INITIAL SURFACE WIND SPEED WILL REMAIN AT 45 KTS.  THE PRESSURE
REMAINS AT 1005 MB. 
 
GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST WEAKER SOUTHWESTERLIES OVER THE STORM IN
ABOUT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE OUTPUT OF THE
SHIPS MODEL THAT DECREASES THE SHEAR FROM 18 TO 12 KNOTS BY 36
HOURS. THEREFORE...SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AND THE
CYCLONE COULD BE AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AT THE TIME OF
LANDFALL.
 
AFTER THE LITTLE JOG TO THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY...CLAUDETTE HAS
JOGGED BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING...SUGGESTING THAT THE
STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK AND SOME ADDITIONAL JOGS OR WOBBLES ARE
POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES ON A GENERALLY WESTERLY COURSE.  THIS WESTERLY
COURSE IS DUE TO A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. 
LANDFALL SHOULD OCCUR IN ABOUT THE 48 HOUR TIME FRAME.
 
FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      13/0900Z 25.0N  92.5W    45 KT
 12HR VT     13/1800Z 25.4N  93.5W    45 KT
 24HR VT     14/0600Z 25.7N  94.6W    45 KT
 36HR VT     14/1800Z 25.9N  95.8W    50 KT
 48HR VT     15/0600Z 26.0N  97.2W    60 KT...LANDFALL
 72HR VT     16/0600Z 26.1N  99.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     17/0600Z 26.2N 101.5W    20 KT...INLAND
 
 
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