ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT WED JUL 09 2003 CLAUDETTE CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED BY THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND YUCATAN. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF CLAUDETTE IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION AND THIS POSITION WAS CONFIRMED BY RECENT FIXES FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS BEEN OSCILLATING BETWEEN 1002 AND 1004 MB AND MAX WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 50 KNOTS. ONE PLUS FOR CLAUDETTE IS THAT THE OVERALL LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS BETTER DEFINED NOW THAN 24 HOURS AGO. ALL GLOBAL MODELS INSIST ON WEAKENING THE UPPER-LOW AND DEVELOP AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER CLAUDETTE. THIS WOULD BE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT BUT IT HAS NOT HAPPENED SO FAR. THEREFORE..NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS INDICATED IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS WHILE THE SHEAR REMAINS STRONG. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME STRENGTHENING JUST BEFORE LANDFALL OVER YUCATAN EARLY FRIDAY...ASSUMING THE GLOBAL MODELS WILL BE CORRECT. CLAUDETTE IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 17 TO 20 KNOTS WHILE EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE NORTH OF STORM RESULTING IS A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. BY THE TIME CLAUDETTE REACHES THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...BY DAY 4 AND 5...THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO BE WEAK AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE VERY SLOWLY. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE SOLUTION OF THE CONSENSUS OR AVERAGE OF THE GFS...UK AND NOGAPS MODELS. THE OFFICIAL 72-H POSITION IS NOT FAR FROM THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. ALL OF THE ABOVE ASSUMES THAT CLAUDETTE WILL SURVIVE THE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/0300Z 16.3N 81.0W 50 KT 12HR VT 10/1200Z 17.2N 83.4W 50 KT 24HR VT 11/0000Z 19.0N 86.0W 60 KT 36HR VT 11/1200Z 20.5N 88.5W 35 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 12/0000Z 22.0N 90.5W 40 KT...OVER WATER 72HR VT 13/0000Z 24.0N 93.0W 50 KT...OVER WATER 96HR VT 14/0000Z 25.5N 94.5W 60 KT...OVER WATER 120HR VT 15/0000Z 26.0N 96.0W 70 KT...OVER WATER NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC