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Tropical Storm CLAUDETTE

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TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED JUL 09 2003
 
CLAUDETTE CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED BY THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW
LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND YUCATAN. THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF CLAUDETTE IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE
OF THE CONVECTION AND THIS POSITION WAS CONFIRMED BY RECENT FIXES
FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS BEEN
OSCILLATING BETWEEN 1002 AND 1004 MB AND MAX WINDS HAVE DECREASED
TO 50 KNOTS. ONE PLUS FOR CLAUDETTE IS THAT THE OVERALL LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS BETTER DEFINED NOW THAN 24 HOURS AGO.

ALL GLOBAL MODELS INSIST ON WEAKENING THE UPPER-LOW AND DEVELOP AN
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER CLAUDETTE. THIS WOULD BE A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT BUT IT HAS NOT HAPPENED SO FAR. THEREFORE..NO CHANGE IN
INTENSITY IS INDICATED IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS WHILE THE SHEAR REMAINS
STRONG. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME STRENGTHENING JUST BEFORE
LANDFALL OVER YUCATAN EARLY FRIDAY...ASSUMING THE GLOBAL MODELS
WILL BE CORRECT. 
 
CLAUDETTE IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 17 TO 20 KNOTS WHILE EMBEDDED WITHIN
A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THE
RIDGE NORTH OF STORM RESULTING IS A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED. BY THE TIME CLAUDETTE REACHES THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...BY DAY 4 AND 5...THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO
BE WEAK AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE VERY SLOWLY. THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE SOLUTION OF THE CONSENSUS OR
AVERAGE OF THE GFS...UK AND NOGAPS MODELS.  THE OFFICIAL 72-H
POSITION IS NOT FAR FROM THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.
 
ALL OF THE ABOVE ASSUMES THAT CLAUDETTE WILL SURVIVE THE HOSTILE
ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      10/0300Z 16.3N  81.0W    50 KT
 12HR VT     10/1200Z 17.2N  83.4W    50 KT
 24HR VT     11/0000Z 19.0N  86.0W    60 KT
 36HR VT     11/1200Z 20.5N  88.5W    35 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     12/0000Z 22.0N  90.5W    40 KT...OVER WATER
 72HR VT     13/0000Z 24.0N  93.0W    50 KT...OVER WATER
 96HR VT     14/0000Z 25.5N  94.5W    60 KT...OVER WATER
120HR VT     15/0000Z 26.0N  96.0W    70 KT...OVER WATER
 
 
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