ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT WED JUL 09 2003 A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE ENCOUNTERED A SMALL BAND OF FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS NEAR 85 KNOTS JUST NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER AT 04Z...BUT MORE RECENTLY COULD ONLY FIND 55 KNOT WINDS IN THE SAME AREA. THE 85 KNOT OBSERVATION COULD BE USED TO UPGRADE CLAUDETTE TO A HURRICANE. BUT SINCE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE INCREASED TO 1004 MB AND THE HIGH WINDS APPEAR TO HAVE BEEN TRANSITORY...THE OFFICIAL ONE-MINUTE SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED AT 60 KNOTS. THE SHIPS MODEL STRENGTHENS CLAUDETTE TO 76 KNOTS IN 36 HOURS FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AFTER 48 HOURS. THE LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THE CDO FEATURE DISTORTED...THE OUTER CONVECTIVE BAND HAS DIMINISHED...AND THERE APPEARS TO BE A FLATTENING OF THE WEST SIDE OUTFLOW BY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT. THESE FEATURES ALONG WITH THE RISE IN CENTRAL PRESSURE ARE SIGNS OF INHIBITING THE STRENGTHENING PROCESS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ...BUT THEN STRENGTHENING MAY RESUME. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS TO 70 KNOTS IN 36 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/22. THE STORM IS EMBEDDED IN DEEP EASTERLIES TO THE SOUTH OF A DEEP LAYER MEAN RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO BY DAY 4 WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL SLOWING OF FORWARD SPEED AND MORE NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION. THE GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT A SLOWING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR 3 DAYS BRINGING THE STORM ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. GUIDANCE DIVERGES SOME BY DAY 5 WITH THE GFS MODEL SHOWING A LOCATION OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE NOGAPS HAS THE CENTER OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE IN BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES. I HAVE BEEN UNABLE TO CONTACT THE NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF MEXICO BY TELEPHONE TO COORDINATE A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/0900Z 15.3N 75.5W 60 KT 12HR VT 09/1800Z 15.7N 78.6W 60 KT 24HR VT 10/0600Z 17.2N 82.5W 65 KT 36HR VT 10/1800Z 18.7N 85.6W 70 KT 48HR VT 11/0600Z 20.0N 88.0W 70 KT 72HR VT 12/0600Z 22.0N 91.0W 35 KT 96HR VT 13/0600Z 23.5N 92.5W 45 KT 120HR VT 14/0600Z 25.0N 93.0W 55 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC