Tropical Storm CLAUDETTE

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TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED JUL 09 2003
 
A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE ENCOUNTERED A SMALL BAND OF FLIGHT LEVEL
WINDS NEAR 85 KNOTS JUST NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER AT 04Z...BUT MORE
RECENTLY COULD ONLY FIND 55 KNOT WINDS IN THE SAME AREA.  THE 85
KNOT OBSERVATION COULD BE USED TO UPGRADE CLAUDETTE TO A HURRICANE.
BUT SINCE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE INCREASED TO 1004 MB AND THE HIGH
WINDS APPEAR TO HAVE BEEN TRANSITORY...THE OFFICIAL ONE-MINUTE
SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED AT 60 KNOTS.
 
THE SHIPS MODEL STRENGTHENS CLAUDETTE TO 76 KNOTS IN 36 HOURS
FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AFTER 48 HOURS.
THE LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THE CDO FEATURE DISTORTED...THE
OUTER CONVECTIVE BAND HAS DIMINISHED...AND THERE APPEARS TO BE A
FLATTENING OF THE WEST SIDE OUTFLOW BY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT. 
THESE FEATURES ALONG WITH THE RISE IN CENTRAL PRESSURE ARE SIGNS OF
INHIBITING THE STRENGTHENING PROCESS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
...BUT THEN STRENGTHENING MAY RESUME.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS TO
70 KNOTS IN 36 HOURS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/22.  THE STORM IS EMBEDDED IN
DEEP EASTERLIES TO THE SOUTH OF A DEEP LAYER MEAN RIDGE.  THIS RIDGE
IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO BY DAY 4 WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL SLOWING OF FORWARD SPEED AND MORE
NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION.  THE GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ABOUT A SLOWING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR 3 DAYS
BRINGING THE STORM ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND OVER THE
SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO.  GUIDANCE DIVERGES SOME BY DAY 5 WITH THE
GFS MODEL SHOWING A LOCATION OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE
NOGAPS HAS THE CENTER OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE IN BETWEEN THESE
EXTREMES.

I HAVE BEEN UNABLE TO CONTACT THE NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF
MEXICO BY TELEPHONE TO COORDINATE A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      09/0900Z 15.3N  75.5W    60 KT
 12HR VT     09/1800Z 15.7N  78.6W    60 KT
 24HR VT     10/0600Z 17.2N  82.5W    65 KT
 36HR VT     10/1800Z 18.7N  85.6W    70 KT
 48HR VT     11/0600Z 20.0N  88.0W    70 KT
 72HR VT     12/0600Z 22.0N  91.0W    35 KT
 96HR VT     13/0600Z 23.5N  92.5W    45 KT
120HR VT     14/0600Z 25.0N  93.0W    55 KT
 
 
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