ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2003 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/12. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BRING THE CENTER ACROSS THE COAST AND INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA IN 12 HOURS. THEREAFTER THE GUIDANCE IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT ABOUT TURNING THE REMNANT LOW OVER LAND TOWARD THE EAST AS THE STORM ENCOUNTERS THE WESTERLIES. THEREFORE THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. A RECENT RECON AIRCRAFT REPORTED THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 1001 MB. THE MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 50 KNOTS BASED ON A FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 66 KNOTS SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER...THE WIND SPEED CAN STILL INCREASE DURING THE SEVERAL HOURS REMAINING BEFORE LANDFALL. DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE CENTER OR THE FORECAST TRACK OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SINCE STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS CAN BE EXPERIENCED WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/1500Z 28.8N 91.5W 50 KT 12HR VT 01/0000Z 30.5N 91.5W 40 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 01/1200Z 32.7N 90.5W 30 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 02/0000Z 34.6N 88.7W 20 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 02/1200Z 36.0N 86.0W 20 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 03/1200Z 36.5N 80.5W 20 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 04/1200Z...INLAND NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC