ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2003 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO IS LOSING ITS BATTLE WITH CLIMATOLOGY. IN FACT...IT PROBABLY HAS ALREADY LOST AS THERE APPEARS TO BE NO CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME. WHAT PASSES FOR A SURFACE VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS DISPLACED ABOUT 85 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE MID-LEVEL CENTER. HOWEVER...WE WILL HOLD ONTO THE SYSTEM FOR A BIT UNTIL WE ARE FAIRLY CONFIDENT A CIRCULATION IS NOT GOING TO REDEVELOP. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/17. IN ITS CURRENT STATE OF DISORGANIZATION...AND UNLESS THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY HAVE ONLY A LIMITED INTERACTION WITH THE MID-TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY NEAR 50 W. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS AGAIN BEEN SHIFTED SOUTHWARD OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE NOGAPS AND SHALLOW LAYER BAM MODELS. WITH THE DEPRESSION TAKING A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK IT SHOULD BE ABLE TO STAY IN A LIGHT TO MODERATE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...ITS SMALL SIZE...LOW LATITUDE...AND RELATIVELY DRY ENVIRONMENT MAKES THE SYSTEM QUITE VULNERABLE TO THE SHEAR THAT IS PRESENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NO LONGER ANTICIPATES THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE. DISSIPATION IS LIKELY WITHIN 24 HOURS...ALTHOUGH FORECAST POINTS ARE BEING PROVIDED OUT TO 72 HOURS IN THE EVENT THE SYSTEM HANGS TOGETHER LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/2100Z 9.8N 46.7W 30 KT 12HR VT 12/0600Z 10.0N 49.3W 30 KT 24HR VT 12/1800Z 10.4N 52.3W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 13/0600Z 11.0N 55.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 48HR VT 13/1800Z 11.5N 59.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 72HR VT 14/1800Z 12.5N 65.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:55 UTC