ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2003 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE WELL-ORGANIZED TROPICAL WAVE IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC HAS BECOME TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO. THIS IS BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. CURRENTLY...THE DEPRESSION HAS DEEP CONVECTION...SOME BANDING FEATURES AND GOOD OUTFLOW. HOWEVER...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS STILL DIFFICULT TO LOCATE OR POORLY-DEFINED...WHICH IS COMMON ON DEPRESSIONS. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS BEFORE IT ENCOUNTERS A VERY HOSTILE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THEREAFTER...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN GRADUALLY AND MAY EVEN BECOME A TROPICAL WAVE BY DAYS 4 AND 5. THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT 16 KNOTS WHILE EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP-LAYER MEAN FLOW. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...MOVING THE DEPRESSION WESTWARD...UP TO 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...A FEW MODELS KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK AND THE OTHERS SUGGEST A WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. IF THE CYCLONE TAKES A MORE WESTERLY TRACK...THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WOULD NOT BE SO HOSTILE FOR WEAKENING. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/0300Z 9.6N 41.6W 30 KT 12HR VT 11/1200Z 9.8N 44.1W 30 KT 24HR VT 12/0000Z 10.5N 47.0W 35 KT 36HR VT 12/1200Z 11.5N 49.5W 35 KT 48HR VT 13/0000Z 12.5N 52.0W 30 KT 72HR VT 14/0000Z 14.5N 56.5W 30 KT 96HR VT 15/0000Z 16.0N 60.0W 25 KT 120HR VT 16/0000Z 17.0N 63.0W 25 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:55 UTC