Tropical Depression TWO

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TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2003
 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE WELL-ORGANIZED TROPICAL WAVE IN
THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC HAS BECOME TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO. THIS IS
BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.
CURRENTLY...THE DEPRESSION HAS DEEP CONVECTION...SOME BANDING
FEATURES AND GOOD OUTFLOW. HOWEVER...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS STILL
DIFFICULT TO LOCATE OR POORLY-DEFINED...WHICH IS COMMON ON
DEPRESSIONS. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS BEFORE IT ENCOUNTERS
A VERY HOSTILE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THEREAFTER...THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN GRADUALLY AND MAY EVEN BECOME A TROPICAL WAVE
BY DAYS 4 AND 5.

THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT 16
KNOTS WHILE EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP-LAYER MEAN FLOW. A GRADUAL TURN
TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
ANTICIPATED IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. TRACK GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...MOVING THE DEPRESSION WESTWARD...UP TO 48
HOURS. THEREAFTER...A FEW MODELS KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A MORE
WESTWARD TRACK AND THE OTHERS SUGGEST A WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION AS
INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. IF THE CYCLONE TAKES A MORE
WESTERLY TRACK...THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WOULD NOT BE SO HOSTILE
FOR WEAKENING.  
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      11/0300Z  9.6N  41.6W    30 KT
 12HR VT     11/1200Z  9.8N  44.1W    30 KT
 24HR VT     12/0000Z 10.5N  47.0W    35 KT
 36HR VT     12/1200Z 11.5N  49.5W    35 KT
 48HR VT     13/0000Z 12.5N  52.0W    30 KT
 72HR VT     14/0000Z 14.5N  56.5W    30 KT
 96HR VT     15/0000Z 16.0N  60.0W    25 KT
120HR VT     16/0000Z 17.0N  63.0W    25 KT
 
 
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