ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT WED APR 23 2003 THERE WAS A RECENT BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION JUST NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...SO ADVISORIES WILL BE CONTINUED FOR AT LEAST SIX MORE HOURS. THE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED AT 35 KT ALTHOUGH THE LAST REAL EVIDENCE OF THIS SPEED WAS A 03Z SHIP REPORT. WITH STRONG SHEAR CONTINUING AND COLDER SSTS AHEAD...THIS SYSTEM HAS NO HOPE HAS A TROPICAL SYSTEM. HOWEVER SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS BRING THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE AZORES IN ABOUT 4 DAYS AS A 30 TO 40 KT SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR SLIGHT WEAKENING AND THEN SLIGHT EXTRATROPICAL STRENGTHENING AFTER 48 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 060/09. THIS REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED IS BASED ON THE LOCATION OF A RATHER POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CLOUD CENTER. THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON A EAST-NORTHEAST TO EAST TRACK OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS WITH HIGHLY VARYING FORWARD SPEEDS. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS BECAUSE OF THE INITIAL MOTION. OTHERWISE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/2100Z 32.1N 50.1W 35 KTS 12HR VT 24/0600Z 32.5N 48.6W 35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 24/1800Z 33.0N 46.0W 35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 25/0600Z 33.6N 43.0W 30 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 25/1800Z 33.9N 39.5W 30 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 26/1800Z 34.5N 33.0W 35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:55 UTC