ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT WED APR 23 2003 ANA DOES NOT LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE ON SATELLITE IMAGES. THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD CENTER HAS BECOME LESS WELL-DEFINED...AND THE DEEP CONVECTION IS SHEARED WELL TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THERE IS LITTLE OR NO EVIDENCE OF BANDING FEATURES. ANA MAY NOT HOLD ON TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS MUCH LONGER...AS SURFACE DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE FRONTAL FEATURES A FEW HUNDRED MILES TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE STORM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THE SYSTEM BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL AT 48 HOURS...HOWEVER THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION MAY OCCUR SOONER DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED BAROCLINIC ZONES. INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. ANA SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE STEERED ON A SLIGHTLY NORTH OF EASTWARD TRACK...ALONG THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF A SPLIT IN THE WESTERLIES. NUMERICAL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST TRAJECTORY...BUT DIFFERS SIGNIFICANTLY IN FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND TO THE GFDL/U.K. MET/NOGAPS/AVN(GFS)...GUNA...CONSENSUS. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/0900Z 30.7N 52.0W 40 KTS 12HR VT 23/1800Z 31.1N 49.4W 35 KTS 24HR VT 24/0600Z 31.8N 46.2W 35 KTS 36HR VT 24/1800Z 32.1N 43.5W 35 KTS 48HR VT 25/0600Z 32.5N 40.5W 35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 26/0600Z 33.5N 35.0W 35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:55 UTC