Tropical Storm ANA

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TROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED APR 23 2003

ANA DOES NOT LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE ON SATELLITE IMAGES.  THE 
LOW-LEVEL CLOUD CENTER HAS BECOME LESS WELL-DEFINED...AND THE DEEP 
CONVECTION IS SHEARED WELL TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  
THERE IS LITTLE OR NO EVIDENCE OF BANDING FEATURES.  ANA MAY NOT 
HOLD ON TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS MUCH LONGER...AS SURFACE DATA AND 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE FRONTAL FEATURES A FEW HUNDRED MILES TO 
THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE STORM.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST 
SHOWS THE SYSTEM BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL AT 48 HOURS...HOWEVER THE 
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION MAY OCCUR SOONER DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY 
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED BAROCLINIC ZONES.

INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  ANA 
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE STEERED ON A SLIGHTLY NORTH OF EASTWARD 
TRACK...ALONG THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF A SPLIT IN THE WESTERLIES.  
NUMERICAL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST 
TRAJECTORY...BUT DIFFERS SIGNIFICANTLY IN FORWARD SPEED.  THE 
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND TO THE 
GFDL/U.K. MET/NOGAPS/AVN(GFS)...GUNA...CONSENSUS. 

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     23/0900Z 30.7N  52.0W    40 KTS
12HR VT     23/1800Z 31.1N  49.4W    35 KTS
24HR VT     24/0600Z 31.8N  46.2W    35 KTS
36HR VT     24/1800Z 32.1N  43.5W    35 KTS
48HR VT     25/0600Z 32.5N  40.5W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     26/0600Z 33.5N  35.0W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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