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Tropical Storm ANA

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SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON APR 21 2003
 
THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN SHEARED FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT
...BUT THERE IS STILL A SMALL ARE OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE 
CENTER.  LATEST TAFB AND SAB DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 1.5
AND 2.5 SUBTROPICAL AND RECENT SSMI WIND ESTIMATES WERE NEAR 35
KNOTS...SO ANA IS KEPT AT 35 KNOTS FOR THIS ADVISORY.  ALL GUIDANCE
IS FOR WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS UNDER WESTERLY SHEAR.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 120/10.  THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED IN
WESTERLY FLOW AND MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS AN EAST TO
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT AND A LITTLE FASTER
THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A LITLE TO THE RIGHT OF A
CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     21/1500Z 29.8N  64.2W    35 KTS
12HR VT     22/0000Z 29.5N  62.4W    30 KTS
24HR VT     22/1200Z 29.3N  59.6W    30 KTS
36HR VT     23/0000Z 29.6N  56.1W    30 KTS
48HR VT     23/1200Z 30.0N  53.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     24/1200Z 31.0N  47.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
 
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