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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   8A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT WED OCT 16 2002
 
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE SOUTH 
CENTRAL COAST OF CUBA...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF CIENFUEGOS...VILLA CLARA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...AND CIEGO DE AVILA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS
IN THE BAHAMAS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...ELEUTHERA...NEW
PROVIDENCE...CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND
SAN SALVADOR.
 
AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...SURFACE AND DOPPLER RADAR OBSERVATIONS 
INDICATE THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN WAS LOCATED 
NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.7 WEST OR NEAR THE SOUTH 
COAST OF CUBA ABOUT 30 MILES...50 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF 
CIENFUEGOS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH
...27 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL 
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR  35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS...AND IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL BECOME A 
TROPICAL STORM BEFORE REACHING CUBA.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
 
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER
MAKES LANDFALL ON THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER 
AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION.

REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...21.8 N... 81.7 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 AM EDT. 
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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