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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   5A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT TUE OCT 15 2002

...DEPRESSION MOVING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA
HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...MATANZAS...CIENFUEGOS...VILLA
CLARA...SANCTI SPRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
A PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA FOR WESTERN CUBA MAY BE DISCONTINUED 
LATER TODAY.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL
BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...
BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...NEW PROVIDENCE...CAT
ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR.
 
AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION FOURTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...
LONGITUDE  82.4 WEST OR ABOUT 105 MILES...170 KM...SOUTHWEST 
OF GRAND CAYMAN.
 
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR  5 MPH
... 7 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL DIRECTION OF MOTION IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED
TO BEGIN LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR  35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH 
HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 
HOURS AND THE DEPRESSION COULD STILL BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER 
TODAY OR TONIGHT BEFORE REACHING THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
 
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER
MAKES LANDFALL ON THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER 
AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION.
 
REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...18.1 N... 82.4 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR  5 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 5 PM EDT. 
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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